A Chimp and a Chair

My name is CaptnPoppy. I did not name myself. My knowledge of the English language and typing is self taught and comes out of being taught sign language as a young primate. I am a chimp who is playing poker for my life. You see I am in this insane petting zoo north of the New Brunswick border in Canada somewhere and it is frigging cold here. I have started from nothing and will try to duplicate Chris Ferguson's bankroll management feat of zero to 10,000 dollars. If I can do it, I'll buy a boat. A sweet Monkey boat to escape from here and my insane roommate Mr. Wrinkles. CaptnPoppy plays on Ultimate Bet. Get Gear at http://www.cafepress.ca/CaptnPoppy


Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Finding Leaks and Asking for Help

I wonder, just in case if any one know please, please tell me. What is the chance of winning a 9 person game when you double up first. That is eight person table you have 3000 chips and everyone else has 1500, all  players being equal. If so it sure isn't 100% so why am I racing  all in pre-flop with 50 50 or only a small edge?  I mean coin flip I am out or have an edge, but that's not enough.  That's huge handicap if you already lose half your entries for just a better shot at winning. You would do better to flip coins. You lose or you win not you lose or you could win

OK
1 No Ace rags
2 Fold Big Slick if it misses the flop
3 Avoid all in races until after money positions or a chip stack below ten times the Big Blind
Posted by at 5:13 PM

1 comments:

  1. Considering how many unknown factors contribute to your true chance of winning, a chip count alone isn't really sufficient to calculate it. However we can use ICM ( Independant Chip Model: http://www.chillin411.com/node/7 ) to calculate the true cash value of your tournament chips & the other remaining players chips.

    So, assuming neither you nor the guy you just knocked out was in either blind, and assuming you were playing a UB SnG so the lvl 1 blinds were 5/10, that would leave you with 3015c, 5 players with 1500c, and 1 each with 1490c & 1495c. The last piece of data we need is the SnG payout distribution, which is the standard 50%/30%/20% of the prize pool for 1st/2nd/3rd place.

    Using all that as input ICM Calculator ( http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php ) lists each remaining player's ICM Equity & chances of placing 1st-5th as follows:

    You: Chips = 3015; ICM Equity = 0.2036 ( 1st: 0.223, 2nd: 0.195, 3rd: 0.167, 4th: 0.139, 5th: 0.111 )

    P2: Chips = 1490; ICM Equity = 0.1132 ( 1st: 0.110, 2nd: 0.114, 3rd: 0.119, 4th: 0.123, 5th: 0.127 )

    P3: Chips = 1495; ICM Equity = 0.1136; ( 1st: 0.111, 2nd: 0.115, 3rd: 0.119, 4th: 0.123, 5th: 0.127 )

    P4/5/6/7/8: Chips = 1500; ICM Equity = 0.1139; ( 1st: 0.111, 2nd: 0.115, 3rd: 0.119, 4th: 0.123, 5th: 0.127 )

    P9: Chips/ICM Equity/1st-5th = 0.0000


    Of course, if you're interested you could actually go further & use Pokerstove along with the ICM Calc to work out quite a bit more. Check these out if you're interested:

    http://www.chillin411.com/node/8

    http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/sit-n-go-tourney-tactics/icm-calcs-calling-ai-after-raising-pushing-over-raise-136353.html


    Personally, I've been trying to start playing much tighter in early SnG levels, making smaller raises & folding to most shoves; at least until I'm comfortable with who I'm playing against and how they play.

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